Shadowy conference at Wilton Park
Hasanuzzaman Khan
Source: The New Nation
July 6, 2008
The Government is yet to issue any statement on the policy conference on Bangladesh held at Wilton Park in southern England on June 23 and 24. The two-day conference brought together a diverse group of representatives from the Bangladesh Government, political parties, and civil society organisations to discuss the future of democracy in Bangladesh.
A similar conference was held at Harvard in the US a couple of weeks ago. Political observers are dismayed that certain quarters are trying to determine our future in the lecture halls of Wilton Park or Harvard or in the lobby of the House of Commons.
Out of fifty conferences scheduled to be held at Wilton Park, the conference on Bangladesh is the only one that deals exclusively with the internal affairs of the country. It is aimed at giving a global implication of the issue of disrupted democracy in Bangladesh. Political observers wonder whether the issue of temporary disruption of democracy in Bangladesh has become a global issue.
The name Wilton Park is not familiar in Bangladesh. It has featured in media reports here for having organised the conference titled 'prospect of democracy in Bangladesh, ways and means to strengthen it on June 23 and 24.'
Wilton Park was set up in 1946 as a part of an initiative inspired by then British PM Sir Winston Churchill to help establish democracy in Germany after the Second World War. It is an academically independent agency of the UK's Foreign Ministry, which brings together decision makers and opinion framers from around the world. The Wilton Park Conference was designed to facilitate discussion among leading Bangladeshi players on how democracy can be strengthened.
Eight representatives from five political parties - Awami League, BNP, Jatiya Party, Jamaat-e-Islami and Bikalpa Dhara joined the Wilton Park conference besides dignitaries from international organisations. Among the politicians Dipu Moni and Saber Hossain Chowdhury of Awami League, Mofazzal Karim of BNP reformist faction, Barrister Abdur Razzak of Jamaat-e-Islami and Mahi B Chowdhury of Bikalpa Dhara participated in the conference. The Bangladeshi politicians confided to this correspondent that transition to democracy was the theme of this conference. It was also aimed at building a political consensus among the Bangladesh politicians with a view to restoring democracy in the country.
Besides, former diplomat Faruque Chowdhury, economist Rehman Sobhan, political Scientist Dr. Raunaq Jahan, Dr. Iftekaruzzaam of TIB, economist Dr. Atiur Rahman, political scientist Dr. Dilara Chowdhury of Jahangir Nagar University and Journalist Mahbubul Alam were among the participants. Widower Rehman Sobhan (about 80) and virgin Dr. Raunaq Jahan (65) attended reportedly as newly married couple.
Political developments in Bangladesh have evoked keen interest among development partners. Donors often remind that future relationship with them will be dictated by how things shape up politically in Bangladesh.
Major themes of discussion at the conference were: democratic reform and anti corruption drive, political reform, democracy and good governance and development. Included also were topics on the past performance of the parliament and the post election scenario. About 906 conferences have so far been held in Wilton Park exclusively on Bangladesh. The latest conference was the 39th in last six months.
Wilton Park conferences are exclusive deals. The delegates are to stay in the Wilton Park Hall and remain out of reach of anybody from outside. The delegates are advised not to disclose anything to the media about the topic of the discussion or the contents thereof. Dr Dipu Moni of Awami League said, something sensitive relating to Bangladesh was discussed in the conference, which were tabooed not to be disclosed to media. Even all telephone connections were kept inoperative during the conference.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Restore democracy in Bangladesh
Restore democracy and rule of law in Bangladesh, say MEPs
July 10, 2008
Source: European Parliament
(In three resolutions adopted at the end of the Strasbourg session, Parliament calls for an inquiry into allegations of mass graves in Kashmir, for the speedy restoration of democracy in Bangladesh and for a fresh trial for Troy Davis, an American who sits on death row despite strong evidence that he may be innocent).
The state of emergency should be lifted, mass arrests of the government's political opponents and journalists should cease, the military should withdraw from politics and elections should be held as soon as possible, says the EP's resolution on Bangladesh.
The resolution states that, on 11 January 2007 amid violence in the run-up to the election, the caretaker government of Bangladesh imposed a state of emergency, with the suspension of many civil rights. On 11 June 2008 a new Counterterrorism Ordinance was adopted, "violating fundamental freedoms and basic fair trial rights".
The number of people reportedly arrested since the introduction of the state of emergency has risen to well over 300,000. Although most have since been released, a large number are alleged to have been tortured. Since 28 May 2008 more than 12,000 more people have been arrested.
Progress on elections recognised
On a positive note, the resolution acknowledges the caretaker government's progress in preparing for parliamentary elections. It also "applauds the Bangladesh Government for banning former war criminals from standing in elections and calls on it to follow up this positive step by forming an independent committee of inquiry to initiate the trial of war criminals". The release of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on humanitarian grounds is welcomed.
MEPs urge swift restoration of rule of law
However, MEPs believe swifter progress is needed. They call on the government to lift the state of emergency in order to prepare for the holding of the elections and so that local council elections can take place in August 2008. The resolution also calls for the armed forces to withdraw from involvement in the political process.
Ethnic minority voting rights and press freedom stressed
MEPs urge the government to ensure that Bangladesh’s ethnic and religious minorities are in a position to cast their votes freely. And the resolution "calls for freedom of the press in the pre-electoral period".
The government is urged to ensure that its new Anti-Terrorism Ordinance meets internationally recognised legal standards on combating terrorism. In addition, MEPs call for abolition of the death penalty and an end to the recent wave of mass arrests and the harassment of political opponents and journalists.
Democracy and climate change
MEPs point out that a further reason for holding elections is that "an elected government would make it easier to deal with the effects of climate change", which poses a particular threat to Bangladesh and will require large-scale mobilisation of all sections of society.
EU action
Lastly, Parliament wants the European Commission and Council to impress on the Bangladesh Government the need for a speedy and complete lifting of the state of emergency. And to ensure free and fair elections in accordance with international standards, the EU Election Observation Mission should resume work as soon as possible.
July 10, 2008
Source: European Parliament
(In three resolutions adopted at the end of the Strasbourg session, Parliament calls for an inquiry into allegations of mass graves in Kashmir, for the speedy restoration of democracy in Bangladesh and for a fresh trial for Troy Davis, an American who sits on death row despite strong evidence that he may be innocent).
The state of emergency should be lifted, mass arrests of the government's political opponents and journalists should cease, the military should withdraw from politics and elections should be held as soon as possible, says the EP's resolution on Bangladesh.
The resolution states that, on 11 January 2007 amid violence in the run-up to the election, the caretaker government of Bangladesh imposed a state of emergency, with the suspension of many civil rights. On 11 June 2008 a new Counterterrorism Ordinance was adopted, "violating fundamental freedoms and basic fair trial rights".
The number of people reportedly arrested since the introduction of the state of emergency has risen to well over 300,000. Although most have since been released, a large number are alleged to have been tortured. Since 28 May 2008 more than 12,000 more people have been arrested.
Progress on elections recognised
On a positive note, the resolution acknowledges the caretaker government's progress in preparing for parliamentary elections. It also "applauds the Bangladesh Government for banning former war criminals from standing in elections and calls on it to follow up this positive step by forming an independent committee of inquiry to initiate the trial of war criminals". The release of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on humanitarian grounds is welcomed.
MEPs urge swift restoration of rule of law
However, MEPs believe swifter progress is needed. They call on the government to lift the state of emergency in order to prepare for the holding of the elections and so that local council elections can take place in August 2008. The resolution also calls for the armed forces to withdraw from involvement in the political process.
Ethnic minority voting rights and press freedom stressed
MEPs urge the government to ensure that Bangladesh’s ethnic and religious minorities are in a position to cast their votes freely. And the resolution "calls for freedom of the press in the pre-electoral period".
The government is urged to ensure that its new Anti-Terrorism Ordinance meets internationally recognised legal standards on combating terrorism. In addition, MEPs call for abolition of the death penalty and an end to the recent wave of mass arrests and the harassment of political opponents and journalists.
Democracy and climate change
MEPs point out that a further reason for holding elections is that "an elected government would make it easier to deal with the effects of climate change", which poses a particular threat to Bangladesh and will require large-scale mobilisation of all sections of society.
EU action
Lastly, Parliament wants the European Commission and Council to impress on the Bangladesh Government the need for a speedy and complete lifting of the state of emergency. And to ensure free and fair elections in accordance with international standards, the EU Election Observation Mission should resume work as soon as possible.
All set to free Bangladesh
All set to free Bangladesh
By PAUL GABRIEL
Source: The Star Online
July 20, 2008
Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed, Chief Adviser to the Interim Caretaker Government of Bangladesh, has an enormous task ahead as his administration strives to ensure a free and fair general election this December.
Dr Fakhruddin has strived to put things in order by leading an anti-graft campaign in a country widely perceived as being among the world’s most corrupt. His caretaker administration has the responsibility of preparing one of the world’s largest Muslim democracies for a watershed general election, which it vows will take place this December.
In an exclusive interview with Sunday Star during a recent visit to Kuala Lumpur, Dr Fakhruddin, a noted Bangladeshi economist who once headed the Central Bank, spoke about his unique position and the challenges leading up to the scheduled December polls.
Politics has remained virtually frozen in Bangladesh since you assumed your caretaker role in Jan 2007. Many say the situation on the ground is still as volatile as ever. What is the actual state of affairs in Bangladesh?
I don’t think that politics is frozen in Bangladesh. If you read the newspapers, you will find that political leaders from different parties are making statements, organising meetings. Yes, there are certain laws and rules that really restricted some activities, but the Government has relaxed many of these rules. In fact, there have been large conferences organised by political parties in Dhaka, where they brought in people from outside the capital. In some areas, the Election Commission has announced the municipal council election schedule. So, the political scene is vibrant.
There are 150 million people in your country who expect a fresh start for Bangladesh in December when the general election is planned. But are conditions for free and fair elections, as you have promised, in place? Are you anywhere near that point at all?
Well, we are working towards that, both the Government and the Election Commission. Conditions for free, fair and credible elections can be held. There are a couple of things here - one is a voter list with photographs. That was the demand of many political parties, the people in general and members of civil society. For the past year or so, the Election Commission has been engaged in that task and they are about to complete it. It is a voter list that will include 80 million plus voters.
The Election Commission, in consultation with political parties, members of civil society, and other professional bodies, has also drafted the electoral law, rules, (and) even a code of conduct that will guide the electoral process. Basically, the conditions are being created for free, fair and credible elections.
So you are able to guarantee that the elections will take place as scheduled?
Yes. I do believe and can assure you, as I have assured my people that come December, elections will be held as earlier announced.
Is it a totally fresh voter’s list with 80 million photographs?
Absolutely. It is a totally fresh list where people came forward to be registered. What the Election Commission did was to prepare a voter's list that will have photographs of the voters against their names. In addition to the voter’s list, the people who came forward are also being issued with ID cards. This has also created a lot of enthusiasm among the people, that they are getting an ID card. As you will appreciate, this has been quite a tremendous task, and this was done using the most modern technology where the people were registered and their photographs taken at the same time.
What other electoral reforms have your caretaker administration introduced?
I have mentioned the institutional reforms ? the Election Commission, an independent judiciary. These are necessary if you are going to have a good, free and fair election. And secondly, some of the basic electoral laws, rules and regulations are being amended. But those are being led primarily by the Election Commission, which has decided that they require each political party to be registered and then work under certain parameters. That will bring in, shall we say, greater transparency to the activities of the political parties. This is also part of our democratisation. The Government is giving the Election Commission help. This is something that was demanded by the people even before the caretaker government came to power.
What do you say to critics who doubt that under existing circumstances in Bangladesh, democracy could never take root? Even many Bangladeshis are doubtful about the future of democracy in their country.
Democracy is an institution and form of government that we have chosen. There is no better alternative to democracy. Democracy is also a process. Elections are a necessary condition for democracy, but it is not a sufficient condition. Also, there needs to be, shall we say, a strong institutional base to sustain the democracy. And some of those bases are an independent Election Commission, judiciary, Anti-Corruption Commission and an independent Public Service Commission that recruits people on merit.
There are other institutional set-ups and arrangements, like we are now finalising a Right to Information Act, which would allow our citizens to demand information from the Government, various departments and ministries, down to the lower levels. These are strong institutions that will really provide the firm foundation for democracy. So there is no reason and there is nothing for me to doubt that democracy cannot be established. It has to be and it will be.
Going back to the elections, how many parties will be contesting? Is the boycott still in force by the main Opposition parties? Will this be a setback to your efforts?
Let me first say that the caretaker government is a neutral government. We believe that political parties are necessary to practise democracy. That is why the Election Commission is taking action so that the political parties can really develop in an environment that's more transparent than before.
How many political parties are going to participate? It will be our utmost effort that all the political parties, which the Election Commission has registered and say can participate, will participate. That is under the purview of the Election Commission. But as far as the government is concerned, we will try our best to get every political party to come forward and participate. We want a level playing field for all political parties and want to see fair and credible elections.
So you do not foresee a situation of too few political parties taking part?
I personally do not foresee that because I think all the parties are interested in a free, fair and credible election. And if we can demonstrate that conditions have been created for free, fair and credible elections, I will argue that all the political parties will participate.
Will the two main political rivals, former Prime Ministers Khaleda Zia, who is from the Bangladesh National Party which is the immediate past ruling party, and Sheikh Hasina who heads the Awami League, be contesting?
Ultimately they will have to decide whether they want to contest or not. And it's for the Election Commission to decide according to the laws of the land whether they can contest. If you look at what’s happening with the local council and municipal elections, they are going through that process. The Election Commission has invited nominations and are scrutinising nomination papers as we speak, whether the parties that have submitted nomination papers are fit to seek election under laws and rules of the commission. So that’s a clear, transparent process.
There are those who describe you as the civilian face of the military in Bangladesh. There are questions as to whether you are speaking up for the military or for the people. Are you actually standing up for what the people of Bangladesh want?
I would very much like to state that - yes. We are not a government by the people, but definitely a government for the people. Some of the reforms we have undertaken have been in the interest of sustainable democracy. This is in line with the wishes of the political parties and the people.
In our economic policies too, we have kept poverty alleviation and economic prudence absolutely on top of the agenda of reforms. I very much want to repeat that definitely we are a government of the people.
What about allegations that your caretaker administration has beaten up and thrown protesters into jail, moved against teachers and students who are unhappy with the situation, and stifled the independence of the press?
I don’t think we have moved against any specific groups or protesters. Whenever certain people were apprehended, it has been done under certain laws of the land. It is not because we didn’t allow or do not like to allow any protest.
If you look at what’s happening in the press right from day one, we have been saying that the press and media are free. If you look at the Bangladesh media today, I think I can very well argue and claim that it is as free as anytime in the past. If you look at the television and print media, you will find that they are criticising the government on various counts. They are able to express their free opinions.
So, basically we have not done anything to stop protests or take action against any particular group. But, obviously, if somebody takes law and order into their own hands, then the law of the land should be applied.
What is it like being a caretaker Head of Government?
I never think whether we are a caretaker government or not. I just keep on moving, keeping the goals in view and the goal that elections will be held and that this government will hand over power according to the schedule already announced.
By PAUL GABRIEL
Source: The Star Online
July 20, 2008
Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed, Chief Adviser to the Interim Caretaker Government of Bangladesh, has an enormous task ahead as his administration strives to ensure a free and fair general election this December.
Dr Fakhruddin has strived to put things in order by leading an anti-graft campaign in a country widely perceived as being among the world’s most corrupt. His caretaker administration has the responsibility of preparing one of the world’s largest Muslim democracies for a watershed general election, which it vows will take place this December.
In an exclusive interview with Sunday Star during a recent visit to Kuala Lumpur, Dr Fakhruddin, a noted Bangladeshi economist who once headed the Central Bank, spoke about his unique position and the challenges leading up to the scheduled December polls.
Politics has remained virtually frozen in Bangladesh since you assumed your caretaker role in Jan 2007. Many say the situation on the ground is still as volatile as ever. What is the actual state of affairs in Bangladesh?
I don’t think that politics is frozen in Bangladesh. If you read the newspapers, you will find that political leaders from different parties are making statements, organising meetings. Yes, there are certain laws and rules that really restricted some activities, but the Government has relaxed many of these rules. In fact, there have been large conferences organised by political parties in Dhaka, where they brought in people from outside the capital. In some areas, the Election Commission has announced the municipal council election schedule. So, the political scene is vibrant.
There are 150 million people in your country who expect a fresh start for Bangladesh in December when the general election is planned. But are conditions for free and fair elections, as you have promised, in place? Are you anywhere near that point at all?
Well, we are working towards that, both the Government and the Election Commission. Conditions for free, fair and credible elections can be held. There are a couple of things here - one is a voter list with photographs. That was the demand of many political parties, the people in general and members of civil society. For the past year or so, the Election Commission has been engaged in that task and they are about to complete it. It is a voter list that will include 80 million plus voters.
The Election Commission, in consultation with political parties, members of civil society, and other professional bodies, has also drafted the electoral law, rules, (and) even a code of conduct that will guide the electoral process. Basically, the conditions are being created for free, fair and credible elections.
So you are able to guarantee that the elections will take place as scheduled?
Yes. I do believe and can assure you, as I have assured my people that come December, elections will be held as earlier announced.
Is it a totally fresh voter’s list with 80 million photographs?
Absolutely. It is a totally fresh list where people came forward to be registered. What the Election Commission did was to prepare a voter's list that will have photographs of the voters against their names. In addition to the voter’s list, the people who came forward are also being issued with ID cards. This has also created a lot of enthusiasm among the people, that they are getting an ID card. As you will appreciate, this has been quite a tremendous task, and this was done using the most modern technology where the people were registered and their photographs taken at the same time.
What other electoral reforms have your caretaker administration introduced?
I have mentioned the institutional reforms ? the Election Commission, an independent judiciary. These are necessary if you are going to have a good, free and fair election. And secondly, some of the basic electoral laws, rules and regulations are being amended. But those are being led primarily by the Election Commission, which has decided that they require each political party to be registered and then work under certain parameters. That will bring in, shall we say, greater transparency to the activities of the political parties. This is also part of our democratisation. The Government is giving the Election Commission help. This is something that was demanded by the people even before the caretaker government came to power.
What do you say to critics who doubt that under existing circumstances in Bangladesh, democracy could never take root? Even many Bangladeshis are doubtful about the future of democracy in their country.
Democracy is an institution and form of government that we have chosen. There is no better alternative to democracy. Democracy is also a process. Elections are a necessary condition for democracy, but it is not a sufficient condition. Also, there needs to be, shall we say, a strong institutional base to sustain the democracy. And some of those bases are an independent Election Commission, judiciary, Anti-Corruption Commission and an independent Public Service Commission that recruits people on merit.
There are other institutional set-ups and arrangements, like we are now finalising a Right to Information Act, which would allow our citizens to demand information from the Government, various departments and ministries, down to the lower levels. These are strong institutions that will really provide the firm foundation for democracy. So there is no reason and there is nothing for me to doubt that democracy cannot be established. It has to be and it will be.
Going back to the elections, how many parties will be contesting? Is the boycott still in force by the main Opposition parties? Will this be a setback to your efforts?
Let me first say that the caretaker government is a neutral government. We believe that political parties are necessary to practise democracy. That is why the Election Commission is taking action so that the political parties can really develop in an environment that's more transparent than before.
How many political parties are going to participate? It will be our utmost effort that all the political parties, which the Election Commission has registered and say can participate, will participate. That is under the purview of the Election Commission. But as far as the government is concerned, we will try our best to get every political party to come forward and participate. We want a level playing field for all political parties and want to see fair and credible elections.
So you do not foresee a situation of too few political parties taking part?
I personally do not foresee that because I think all the parties are interested in a free, fair and credible election. And if we can demonstrate that conditions have been created for free, fair and credible elections, I will argue that all the political parties will participate.
Will the two main political rivals, former Prime Ministers Khaleda Zia, who is from the Bangladesh National Party which is the immediate past ruling party, and Sheikh Hasina who heads the Awami League, be contesting?
Ultimately they will have to decide whether they want to contest or not. And it's for the Election Commission to decide according to the laws of the land whether they can contest. If you look at what’s happening with the local council and municipal elections, they are going through that process. The Election Commission has invited nominations and are scrutinising nomination papers as we speak, whether the parties that have submitted nomination papers are fit to seek election under laws and rules of the commission. So that’s a clear, transparent process.
There are those who describe you as the civilian face of the military in Bangladesh. There are questions as to whether you are speaking up for the military or for the people. Are you actually standing up for what the people of Bangladesh want?
I would very much like to state that - yes. We are not a government by the people, but definitely a government for the people. Some of the reforms we have undertaken have been in the interest of sustainable democracy. This is in line with the wishes of the political parties and the people.
In our economic policies too, we have kept poverty alleviation and economic prudence absolutely on top of the agenda of reforms. I very much want to repeat that definitely we are a government of the people.
What about allegations that your caretaker administration has beaten up and thrown protesters into jail, moved against teachers and students who are unhappy with the situation, and stifled the independence of the press?
I don’t think we have moved against any specific groups or protesters. Whenever certain people were apprehended, it has been done under certain laws of the land. It is not because we didn’t allow or do not like to allow any protest.
If you look at what’s happening in the press right from day one, we have been saying that the press and media are free. If you look at the Bangladesh media today, I think I can very well argue and claim that it is as free as anytime in the past. If you look at the television and print media, you will find that they are criticising the government on various counts. They are able to express their free opinions.
So, basically we have not done anything to stop protests or take action against any particular group. But, obviously, if somebody takes law and order into their own hands, then the law of the land should be applied.
What is it like being a caretaker Head of Government?
I never think whether we are a caretaker government or not. I just keep on moving, keeping the goals in view and the goal that elections will be held and that this government will hand over power according to the schedule already announced.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
How to Engineer Elections: A Quick Guide
How to Engineer Elections: A Quick Guide
By Sikder Haseeb Khan
Source: The Progressive Bangladesh
July 1, 2008
Imagine that you’re sitting on the throne of Bangladesh’s politics. You are ruling with emergency powers, but dissent is swelling. You are in the midst of an economic crisis. You are threatened by powerful shadowy figures in your own security and intelligence apparatus. Your previous international patrons now uncomfortable. You need an exit, preferably an honorable one.
So you want to hold elections. But a fully free and fair election will almost certainly result in an outcome that you have reason to distrust, for it may return to power many popular politicians that your administration has persecuted severely. So what do you do in this tense situation?
The answer: engineer the elections—but do so carefully, without raising too many alarm bells. Ensure that voting goes smoothly on election day, without hijacking of ballot boxes, prevention of voters from casting ballots, or any such crude tactics that would be obvious to an observer. In other words, engineer it, not rig it. Here’s how...
Bar dissenters
The first step that the regime has taken: prevent feisty politicians from running in the election. Convicting politicians in quick trials—whatever the charges—will come in handy: declare them ineligible for holding public office. Then government would then intensify an “anti-corruption drive” prior to the candidate registration date in order to bar the local political activists that it doesn’t like.
Field proponents
At the same time, the regime has to leave enough of Awami League and BNP outside the legal net so that the parties themselves can participate in the election. It will continue hand-picking “reformist” politicians or possible turncoats, and intimidate or otherwise persuade them to compete. It will support selective campaigns from both security and funding standpoints. As a recent report by the International Crisis Group noted, “the army is preparing a countrywide list of its own ‘clean’ candidates to contest the 2008 polls.”
Whether or not these candidates will represent a King's Party or an existing political platform doesn't matter. What matters is that mostly pro-regime candidates will be allowed to compete.
Shape the grassroots
Then the regime has to ensure that the party rank and file do not rebel. It has already arrested thousands of activists all over the country to prevent dissent, and intimidated thousands others to conform. The government is also trying to bar parties from having students’, teachers’, and workers’ organizations, which usually house most of the activists. In this altered playing field, the government wants to hold local elections first, under either a state of emergency or very limited openings, to ensure that its supporters are able to infiltrate the grassroots level prior to a national election.
Since parliamentary candidates have to rely on grassroots leaders to carry their campaigns, shaping the grassroots will help ensure that parliamentary candidates are forced toe a pro-regime line.
And local elections are not going to be monitored as much by international observers, so the field will be set to stage ‘upsets’. After all, this unrepresentative government claims that it's only doing what the 'people' presumably want.
Control the cities
Another area that the regime has been trying to bolster is its support base among the urban civil society elite. Its attempt to get Dr. Yunus to lead this effort failed. Many of its other supporters among the urban elite are unappealing and unelectable in the perspective of the majority of voters. So, to the extent possible, it is redefining the boundaries of constituencies to give urban areas a greater share. This increases its chance to increase regime loyalists at least in the metropolitan areas. Holding non-party municipal elections is part of this plan.
Increase authority
The final ingredient is to increase the power of electoral authorities to arbitrarily declare results void. The Election Commission has been doing exactly the same. It is about to “empower it to cancel the candidature of any parliamentary contender for gross violation of electoral laws and declare vacant the seat of an elected lawmaker for giving false information in the account of the election expenses” (New Age, 29 April 2008). And who’s going to determine this violation? The Commission of course. Given this government’s woeful record, you can wave due process bye-bye in any such decision.
Satisfaction guaranteed
So voila! Now hold national elections, and at the end of the day, you have engineered a nice exit strategy by making sure only your friends are elected. No violence, no ballot box hijacking, and a lot of claps from foreign observers.
By Sikder Haseeb Khan
Source: The Progressive Bangladesh
July 1, 2008
Imagine that you’re sitting on the throne of Bangladesh’s politics. You are ruling with emergency powers, but dissent is swelling. You are in the midst of an economic crisis. You are threatened by powerful shadowy figures in your own security and intelligence apparatus. Your previous international patrons now uncomfortable. You need an exit, preferably an honorable one.
So you want to hold elections. But a fully free and fair election will almost certainly result in an outcome that you have reason to distrust, for it may return to power many popular politicians that your administration has persecuted severely. So what do you do in this tense situation?
The answer: engineer the elections—but do so carefully, without raising too many alarm bells. Ensure that voting goes smoothly on election day, without hijacking of ballot boxes, prevention of voters from casting ballots, or any such crude tactics that would be obvious to an observer. In other words, engineer it, not rig it. Here’s how...
Bar dissenters
The first step that the regime has taken: prevent feisty politicians from running in the election. Convicting politicians in quick trials—whatever the charges—will come in handy: declare them ineligible for holding public office. Then government would then intensify an “anti-corruption drive” prior to the candidate registration date in order to bar the local political activists that it doesn’t like.
Field proponents
At the same time, the regime has to leave enough of Awami League and BNP outside the legal net so that the parties themselves can participate in the election. It will continue hand-picking “reformist” politicians or possible turncoats, and intimidate or otherwise persuade them to compete. It will support selective campaigns from both security and funding standpoints. As a recent report by the International Crisis Group noted, “the army is preparing a countrywide list of its own ‘clean’ candidates to contest the 2008 polls.”
Whether or not these candidates will represent a King's Party or an existing political platform doesn't matter. What matters is that mostly pro-regime candidates will be allowed to compete.
Shape the grassroots
Then the regime has to ensure that the party rank and file do not rebel. It has already arrested thousands of activists all over the country to prevent dissent, and intimidated thousands others to conform. The government is also trying to bar parties from having students’, teachers’, and workers’ organizations, which usually house most of the activists. In this altered playing field, the government wants to hold local elections first, under either a state of emergency or very limited openings, to ensure that its supporters are able to infiltrate the grassroots level prior to a national election.
Since parliamentary candidates have to rely on grassroots leaders to carry their campaigns, shaping the grassroots will help ensure that parliamentary candidates are forced toe a pro-regime line.
And local elections are not going to be monitored as much by international observers, so the field will be set to stage ‘upsets’. After all, this unrepresentative government claims that it's only doing what the 'people' presumably want.
Control the cities
Another area that the regime has been trying to bolster is its support base among the urban civil society elite. Its attempt to get Dr. Yunus to lead this effort failed. Many of its other supporters among the urban elite are unappealing and unelectable in the perspective of the majority of voters. So, to the extent possible, it is redefining the boundaries of constituencies to give urban areas a greater share. This increases its chance to increase regime loyalists at least in the metropolitan areas. Holding non-party municipal elections is part of this plan.
Increase authority
The final ingredient is to increase the power of electoral authorities to arbitrarily declare results void. The Election Commission has been doing exactly the same. It is about to “empower it to cancel the candidature of any parliamentary contender for gross violation of electoral laws and declare vacant the seat of an elected lawmaker for giving false information in the account of the election expenses” (New Age, 29 April 2008). And who’s going to determine this violation? The Commission of course. Given this government’s woeful record, you can wave due process bye-bye in any such decision.
Satisfaction guaranteed
So voila! Now hold national elections, and at the end of the day, you have engineered a nice exit strategy by making sure only your friends are elected. No violence, no ballot box hijacking, and a lot of claps from foreign observers.
Cracks in the Bangla Army
Cracks in the Bangla Army
Source: SIFY News
July 18, 2008
Barely five months away from the Parliamentary elections promised by the army-backed Caretaker Government of Bangladesh, the country seems to be reeling from one political crisis to another.
The general perception in the country is the Caretaker Government is no longer army-backed, but is army controlled. With recent problems within the army, and the political scenario bleak, a stable social and political situation in Bangladesh appears a distant hope.
The Caretaker Government has lost its meaning. According to the Constitution, the Caretaker Government was to have held elections within 90 days. But because of the prevailing situation at that time, the army intervened and Emergency Rule (ER) was declared on January 11, 2007. Thus pre-empting a BNP-sponsored coup in the armed force.
The People had welcomed the army’s action and its Chief General Moeen U. Ahmed. But that is no longer the case.
The army removed corrupt political leaders, but replaced them with new corrupt rulers. According to Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB), corruption has not gone down. The opportunity to make money was hard to resist. The army is showing cracks, and the people do not want it to rule any more. The Forces have betrayed the people’s trust.
What Dhaka needs to learn
Re-engineering Bangladesh politics is the brain child of the army top brass, especially General Moeen. When Moeen unveiled his political theory of “Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics”, he also deliberately let slip the army’s ambitions. It would be involved in the running of the country one way or the other.
One proposal pending government approval is the formation of a National Security Council (NSC) dominated by the armed forces with wide powers. Another, not mentioned publicly, is sharing of power between the President, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the House, with the army Chief as the President. Other permutations and combinations are also being discussed in the army headquarters in Dhaka.
To consolidate its position in the governance of the country no matter which political party or coalition comes to power, the 1972 Constitution will require some radical changes, not simple amendments. What General Moeen is proposing could actually lead to permanent instability in the country. He is testing out pages from experiments by Pakistan’s military rulers, who periodically had support from the politicians. For example, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto also contemplated sharing power with the army, but Gen. Zia-ul-Haq hanged him.
Being a Bangladeshi, Moeen U.Ahmed should understand that there is a huge difference between the civil societies of Pakistan and Bangladesh, particularly in the political sphere. Pakistan is still largely a feudal society with power concentrated in the hands of landlords, industrialists and the armed forces. In Bangladesh, power comes from the vibrant politics of student unions, trade unions and grass-roots political workers. At the moment, the political heat may not be as high as that of the 1952 language movement or the 1971 liberation war, but it would be unwise for the army leaders to miscalculate the people’s mood.
Also, there are democratic elements within the defence forces, and it is that context that some recent events need to be understood. Why was Lt. General Masududdin Choudhury (better known as Masud) (and some other officers) suddenly retired in May? Masud backed Moeen in squashing the BNP sponsored coup in the first week of January, last year. They worked together to arrest corrupt politicians and strengthen the grip of the armed forces on the Caretaker Government. So why the fall out?
Bangladesh: A book that burns
According to reliable information circulating in Dhaka, Masud’s ouster was the result of a power struggle between him and Moeen. Masud is known to be articulate, emphatic, and hard headed. Moeen is calculative, soft spoken, and can be charming. Some of their course mates in Bangladesh Staff College say Moeen was noted as an officer with little leadership qualities, while Masud was given to prominence.
But Masud has two drawbacks. First, he was recruited in the old Jatiyo Rakhi Bahini (JRB) of Sk. Mujib, a paramilitary force. When the JRB was disbanded, he was absorbed in the regular army.
Then, he is related to Maj. (Retd) Sayed Iskander, brother of BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia. Iskander is still said to be influential among some senior army officers. Although most of the Zia family is facing trial over corruption cases, Iskander, known to be as corrupt as the rest of the family, is yet to be charged. Did Masud help him? On the other hand, Masud has been very hard on Begum Khaleda’s eldest son, Tareq Reheman Zia, known to be the most corrupt and devious person during the BNP regime from 2001-2006.
Bangladesh: The Caretaker Strikes
Masud’s ouster appears to be a mixture of issues. His services have been placed at the foreign ministry, to be posted abroad as an Ambassador. Australia has reportedly declined his accreditation on the grounds of his corruption. Is Masud being squeezed by Moeen into no man’s land?
Masud could not be cashiered or court martialled, perhaps, because he is privy to too many secrets. Moeen may have made a deal with him on an, “either/or” basis. Having been the GOC of 9 Inf. Division which covers Dhaka, Masud must have had his own following in the army. He also had his own links in the Directorate General of Field Intelligence, the main intelligence arm of the armed forces built on the lines of Pakistan’s ISI.
Then, Brig .General Bari of the DGFI has also been transferred to the Army Headquarters. Bari is a veteran of the DGFI, is close to the ISI, and was directly involved till his transfer in dividing the political parties. His abrupt transfer is being linked to Masud’s removal.
More importantly, it is reported that around 37 army officers in Dhaka have been taken into custody, and are to be court martialled on charges of planning a coup. Unconfirmed reports say some officers were killed in a gun fight resisting arrest.
While Dhaka is known for its rumours, there is no denying the escalating friction between factions of the military.
Secularism is not about appeasing terrorists
For instance, the sections in the armed forces who participate in the UN Peace Keeping Missions, are against the armed forces getting involved in politics. They earn a lot of money from these assignments and do not want to jeopardize this opportunity. The UN Secretary General had warned the Bangladesh armed forces in a letter early last year that if they established army rule in the country, they would be debarred from UN assignments. These assignments not only benefit officers and other ranks, but also go a long way is supplementing the budget of the armed forces.
Unfortunately, the Bangladesh armed forces is not a homogeneous lot of professionals. They have been politicized since Zia-ur-Rehman took over in 1977 as the army chief and then the President of the country. There are some small groups of professionals.
Some 20 per cent reportedly support the Awami League. But a large number are supporters of the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which has cadres from the lower ranks to some officers who are inclined towards Islamic radicalism and Pakistan. These are mostly elements in the forces who had opposed liberation from Pakistan in 1971.
Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed and his colleagues have another serious problem, that of their future security. They have taken on too many political heavyweights, slamming them with corruption charges. The charges are not fictitious. But how many of them can be put behind bars for a long time and debarred from politics?
In many of the cases the charges have been half way houses. If some of them return to power, and many would, they would certainly make the lives of these army officers miserable. It would be so especially in the case of the Khaleda Zia family and her sons Tareq and Arafat, unless they are put away permanently. Begun Khaleda has already said that she will see to these people when she comes back to power.
Moeen and his army colleagues appear to have dug themselves in a hole, and are digging in deeper. It may be advisable for them to ensure that the culprits who have seriously damaged the country are legally ostracized from the country’s socio-political lattice. And then leave politics to the people.
“Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics” is a recipe for disaster.
But General Moeen U. Ahmed obviously believes otherwise.
________________________
Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests. In this exclusive column for Sify.com, he holds forth on what Pyongyang will do once the nuclear issue is resolved
Source: SIFY News
July 18, 2008
Barely five months away from the Parliamentary elections promised by the army-backed Caretaker Government of Bangladesh, the country seems to be reeling from one political crisis to another.
The general perception in the country is the Caretaker Government is no longer army-backed, but is army controlled. With recent problems within the army, and the political scenario bleak, a stable social and political situation in Bangladesh appears a distant hope.
The Caretaker Government has lost its meaning. According to the Constitution, the Caretaker Government was to have held elections within 90 days. But because of the prevailing situation at that time, the army intervened and Emergency Rule (ER) was declared on January 11, 2007. Thus pre-empting a BNP-sponsored coup in the armed force.
The People had welcomed the army’s action and its Chief General Moeen U. Ahmed. But that is no longer the case.
The army removed corrupt political leaders, but replaced them with new corrupt rulers. According to Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB), corruption has not gone down. The opportunity to make money was hard to resist. The army is showing cracks, and the people do not want it to rule any more. The Forces have betrayed the people’s trust.
What Dhaka needs to learn
Re-engineering Bangladesh politics is the brain child of the army top brass, especially General Moeen. When Moeen unveiled his political theory of “Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics”, he also deliberately let slip the army’s ambitions. It would be involved in the running of the country one way or the other.
One proposal pending government approval is the formation of a National Security Council (NSC) dominated by the armed forces with wide powers. Another, not mentioned publicly, is sharing of power between the President, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the House, with the army Chief as the President. Other permutations and combinations are also being discussed in the army headquarters in Dhaka.
To consolidate its position in the governance of the country no matter which political party or coalition comes to power, the 1972 Constitution will require some radical changes, not simple amendments. What General Moeen is proposing could actually lead to permanent instability in the country. He is testing out pages from experiments by Pakistan’s military rulers, who periodically had support from the politicians. For example, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto also contemplated sharing power with the army, but Gen. Zia-ul-Haq hanged him.
Being a Bangladeshi, Moeen U.Ahmed should understand that there is a huge difference between the civil societies of Pakistan and Bangladesh, particularly in the political sphere. Pakistan is still largely a feudal society with power concentrated in the hands of landlords, industrialists and the armed forces. In Bangladesh, power comes from the vibrant politics of student unions, trade unions and grass-roots political workers. At the moment, the political heat may not be as high as that of the 1952 language movement or the 1971 liberation war, but it would be unwise for the army leaders to miscalculate the people’s mood.
Also, there are democratic elements within the defence forces, and it is that context that some recent events need to be understood. Why was Lt. General Masududdin Choudhury (better known as Masud) (and some other officers) suddenly retired in May? Masud backed Moeen in squashing the BNP sponsored coup in the first week of January, last year. They worked together to arrest corrupt politicians and strengthen the grip of the armed forces on the Caretaker Government. So why the fall out?
Bangladesh: A book that burns
According to reliable information circulating in Dhaka, Masud’s ouster was the result of a power struggle between him and Moeen. Masud is known to be articulate, emphatic, and hard headed. Moeen is calculative, soft spoken, and can be charming. Some of their course mates in Bangladesh Staff College say Moeen was noted as an officer with little leadership qualities, while Masud was given to prominence.
But Masud has two drawbacks. First, he was recruited in the old Jatiyo Rakhi Bahini (JRB) of Sk. Mujib, a paramilitary force. When the JRB was disbanded, he was absorbed in the regular army.
Then, he is related to Maj. (Retd) Sayed Iskander, brother of BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia. Iskander is still said to be influential among some senior army officers. Although most of the Zia family is facing trial over corruption cases, Iskander, known to be as corrupt as the rest of the family, is yet to be charged. Did Masud help him? On the other hand, Masud has been very hard on Begum Khaleda’s eldest son, Tareq Reheman Zia, known to be the most corrupt and devious person during the BNP regime from 2001-2006.
Bangladesh: The Caretaker Strikes
Masud’s ouster appears to be a mixture of issues. His services have been placed at the foreign ministry, to be posted abroad as an Ambassador. Australia has reportedly declined his accreditation on the grounds of his corruption. Is Masud being squeezed by Moeen into no man’s land?
Masud could not be cashiered or court martialled, perhaps, because he is privy to too many secrets. Moeen may have made a deal with him on an, “either/or” basis. Having been the GOC of 9 Inf. Division which covers Dhaka, Masud must have had his own following in the army. He also had his own links in the Directorate General of Field Intelligence, the main intelligence arm of the armed forces built on the lines of Pakistan’s ISI.
Then, Brig .General Bari of the DGFI has also been transferred to the Army Headquarters. Bari is a veteran of the DGFI, is close to the ISI, and was directly involved till his transfer in dividing the political parties. His abrupt transfer is being linked to Masud’s removal.
More importantly, it is reported that around 37 army officers in Dhaka have been taken into custody, and are to be court martialled on charges of planning a coup. Unconfirmed reports say some officers were killed in a gun fight resisting arrest.
While Dhaka is known for its rumours, there is no denying the escalating friction between factions of the military.
Secularism is not about appeasing terrorists
For instance, the sections in the armed forces who participate in the UN Peace Keeping Missions, are against the armed forces getting involved in politics. They earn a lot of money from these assignments and do not want to jeopardize this opportunity. The UN Secretary General had warned the Bangladesh armed forces in a letter early last year that if they established army rule in the country, they would be debarred from UN assignments. These assignments not only benefit officers and other ranks, but also go a long way is supplementing the budget of the armed forces.
Unfortunately, the Bangladesh armed forces is not a homogeneous lot of professionals. They have been politicized since Zia-ur-Rehman took over in 1977 as the army chief and then the President of the country. There are some small groups of professionals.
Some 20 per cent reportedly support the Awami League. But a large number are supporters of the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which has cadres from the lower ranks to some officers who are inclined towards Islamic radicalism and Pakistan. These are mostly elements in the forces who had opposed liberation from Pakistan in 1971.
Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed and his colleagues have another serious problem, that of their future security. They have taken on too many political heavyweights, slamming them with corruption charges. The charges are not fictitious. But how many of them can be put behind bars for a long time and debarred from politics?
In many of the cases the charges have been half way houses. If some of them return to power, and many would, they would certainly make the lives of these army officers miserable. It would be so especially in the case of the Khaleda Zia family and her sons Tareq and Arafat, unless they are put away permanently. Begun Khaleda has already said that she will see to these people when she comes back to power.
Moeen and his army colleagues appear to have dug themselves in a hole, and are digging in deeper. It may be advisable for them to ensure that the culprits who have seriously damaged the country are legally ostracized from the country’s socio-political lattice. And then leave politics to the people.
“Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics” is a recipe for disaster.
But General Moeen U. Ahmed obviously believes otherwise.
________________________
Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests. In this exclusive column for Sify.com, he holds forth on what Pyongyang will do once the nuclear issue is resolved
Thursday, July 17, 2008
A Refined Pakistan Model in Bangladesh
A refined 'Pakistan model'?
Source: The News
By Ikram Sehgal
July 17, 2008
Five major power centres exist in Pakistan today, and many smaller ones complicate the state of limbo we are in. On Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto's death, her "will" was read out. With the party leadership in a state of shock, no one questioned the document, giving Asif Zardari space to stage-manage a stunning political coup. Nearly all of the late Mohtarma's close aides who had rendered sacrifices within the country for over a decade were shunted aside, unelected or indirectly elected cronies were installed by Zardari's diktat in the party's Central Executive Committee. Democracy at its best? Unlike the PPP, PPP (Z) leaders are almost all beneficiaries of NRO, the blackest of black laws, with a short unambiguous agenda on behalf of their mentor: make money quickly and leave Pakistan, or whatever is left of it, economically and politically bankrupt.
The title and trappings of office make the prime minister, Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, another power centre, although most of his authority is nevertheless exercised by others. A good man with impeccable political credentials, he was preferred over Ahmad Mukhtar because the Defence Minister would not be a rubberstamp. Put into government to serve as camouflage, one cannot club genuine and committed PPP party activists with PPP (Z).
The Presidency's powers have now diminished considerably. Many want Pervez Musharraf out of office and prosecuted on a number of counts, but he remains in contention. What about the groundswell of public opinion comparing him to the present lot and concluding he wasn't so bad after all? Musharraf would do well as a constitutional president if he does not interfere with governance.
The Sharif brothers' political combine in the Punjab is another major force. Unfortunately, the mass support of the only national popular leader in the country today, Mian Nawaz Sharif, does not translate into many electoral seats in other provinces. With capable and elected leaders to counsel him (as opposed to those surrounding Zardari), the manic obsession about the superior judiciary in exclusion of the many serious problems confronting Pakistan causes reservations about Mian Sahib's judgment and priorities. The PML-N leader should shun confrontation; politics is the art of compromise.
The most potent power centre is in a state of ambiguity. Engaged in a balancing act juggling options between disparate forces and issues, Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has managed to redeem the Army's image by withdrawing lock and stock (if not barrel as yet) from civilian life and ensuring free and fair elections. The no-win situation includes counselling the US that "hot pursuit" into FATA will further exacerbate anti-American feeling, while keeping passions in the ranks from reacting to bloody provocation. Pride notwithstanding, the Pakistani Armed Forces can hardly take on US military might. Having ensured "democracy," it is hypocrisy to salute the rather crooked lot in "constitutional" control of the country. When criminals function in the name of justice, justice becomes a crime. The perception of Kayani's constituency cannot be different from that of the common citizens of Pakistan. Commitment to democracy and the Constitution notwithstanding, can the Army gamble with missing the failsafe line before the country dissolves into chaos?
Numerous challenges continue to pound the ramparts of the state, (1) domestic terrorism with international connotations and nuclear proliferation accusations compounded by AQ Khan's latest outburst puts us on collision course with the West, (2) economic meltdown along with rising oil prices and continuous downward spike of the rupee, (3) an alarming food shortage causing inordinate price rises, (4) manufacturing shutdowns force-multiplying unemployment, (5) serious separatist challenges in Balochistan, and (6) endemic insecurity among the masses because of rapidly eroding confidence in the political leadership. With the buying power of salaries rapidly eroding and food prices inflated astronomically beyond the reach of the common man, a Dec 27-type apocalypse will come when a man sees his children go hungry. This is aggravated by our media testing the limits of both freedom and licence by giving primetime to terrorists spreading their bloody message, thus serving as the terrorists' most potent weapon.
Few options remain to stem the rot, the foremost being that the coalition government (or even the PPP content) should start functioning, instead of indulging in rhetoric and posturing. Sincere long-term commitment requires Asif Zardari to contest elections and become prime minister. And/or let Yusuf Raza Gilani do his job and not be dictated to! As for the blatantly corrupt, the NAB can give names for the Exit Control List (ECL) in less than one hour, their presence a God-given opportunity to question how they could afford their fabulous lifestyle abroad for a decade on their salaries as bureaucrats. One real option must be reconciliation between the Presidency and PML (N), for democracy to function and counter challenges there is nothing better than a popular leader running governments.
Musharraf's counter-coup imposed martial law without calling it such. Lt Gen Moeen Ahmad of Bangladesh refined Musharraf's "1999 Pakistan model" into the "Bangladesh model" in early 2007 by not making the mistake of sending uniformed officers and men into civilian jobs. Unfortunately almost every military chief who takes over civilian power discovers his own immortality in governance as "the saviour of the nation" and his intentions become suspect. Disappointing for me personally, Moeen is no exception. With loss of credibility the "Bangladesh model" will fail its primary aim, to cleanse the body politic of the corrupt.
To quote my article of June 29, 1995, "Why do martial laws fail?" "Martial Laws fail because the initiators of all extra-constitutional rule ride into town on tanks with the lofty Aim of saving the country, relying on that platonic national purpose to make themselves credible. They soon adjust the Aim to more material (and less patriotic) reasons of self-perpetuation. The original Aim remains publicly the same, becomes an exercise in self-delusion. This diversion of Aim means that one individual or group is simply replaced by another (or others), instead of being a transition mechanism that provides for and facilitates the process of the democratic system being repaired and renovated to reflect the real genius and aspirations of the people."
In both models, the Army went wrong in (1) not including clean and aboveboard electable representatives from major parties in the caretaker setups and (2) its chiefs putting personal ambition over national interest. The ultimate option staring us in the face is the route of last resort, a refined "Pakistan model" with both positive and negative lessons learnt from the 1999 Pakistan and 2007 Bangladesh military interventions. Uniformed personal must stay out of government, supporting the honest and capable in running the affairs. Uniformed persona must also shun a second life in politics and/or government. With a swift return to democratic rule (with continuing and fair accountability to include the judiciary and the military). Pakistan has hope.
The country is not yet in a state of anarchy, the federal government is. As time goes by, in a rapidly deteriorating situation, damage control and recovery of stable governance will be much harder. One can only pick up the pieces if there are any pieces left to pick.
While we are not a failed state, if we act too late, options or not, we are doomed as a state.
Source: The News
By Ikram Sehgal
July 17, 2008
Five major power centres exist in Pakistan today, and many smaller ones complicate the state of limbo we are in. On Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto's death, her "will" was read out. With the party leadership in a state of shock, no one questioned the document, giving Asif Zardari space to stage-manage a stunning political coup. Nearly all of the late Mohtarma's close aides who had rendered sacrifices within the country for over a decade were shunted aside, unelected or indirectly elected cronies were installed by Zardari's diktat in the party's Central Executive Committee. Democracy at its best? Unlike the PPP, PPP (Z) leaders are almost all beneficiaries of NRO, the blackest of black laws, with a short unambiguous agenda on behalf of their mentor: make money quickly and leave Pakistan, or whatever is left of it, economically and politically bankrupt.
The title and trappings of office make the prime minister, Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, another power centre, although most of his authority is nevertheless exercised by others. A good man with impeccable political credentials, he was preferred over Ahmad Mukhtar because the Defence Minister would not be a rubberstamp. Put into government to serve as camouflage, one cannot club genuine and committed PPP party activists with PPP (Z).
The Presidency's powers have now diminished considerably. Many want Pervez Musharraf out of office and prosecuted on a number of counts, but he remains in contention. What about the groundswell of public opinion comparing him to the present lot and concluding he wasn't so bad after all? Musharraf would do well as a constitutional president if he does not interfere with governance.
The Sharif brothers' political combine in the Punjab is another major force. Unfortunately, the mass support of the only national popular leader in the country today, Mian Nawaz Sharif, does not translate into many electoral seats in other provinces. With capable and elected leaders to counsel him (as opposed to those surrounding Zardari), the manic obsession about the superior judiciary in exclusion of the many serious problems confronting Pakistan causes reservations about Mian Sahib's judgment and priorities. The PML-N leader should shun confrontation; politics is the art of compromise.
The most potent power centre is in a state of ambiguity. Engaged in a balancing act juggling options between disparate forces and issues, Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has managed to redeem the Army's image by withdrawing lock and stock (if not barrel as yet) from civilian life and ensuring free and fair elections. The no-win situation includes counselling the US that "hot pursuit" into FATA will further exacerbate anti-American feeling, while keeping passions in the ranks from reacting to bloody provocation. Pride notwithstanding, the Pakistani Armed Forces can hardly take on US military might. Having ensured "democracy," it is hypocrisy to salute the rather crooked lot in "constitutional" control of the country. When criminals function in the name of justice, justice becomes a crime. The perception of Kayani's constituency cannot be different from that of the common citizens of Pakistan. Commitment to democracy and the Constitution notwithstanding, can the Army gamble with missing the failsafe line before the country dissolves into chaos?
Numerous challenges continue to pound the ramparts of the state, (1) domestic terrorism with international connotations and nuclear proliferation accusations compounded by AQ Khan's latest outburst puts us on collision course with the West, (2) economic meltdown along with rising oil prices and continuous downward spike of the rupee, (3) an alarming food shortage causing inordinate price rises, (4) manufacturing shutdowns force-multiplying unemployment, (5) serious separatist challenges in Balochistan, and (6) endemic insecurity among the masses because of rapidly eroding confidence in the political leadership. With the buying power of salaries rapidly eroding and food prices inflated astronomically beyond the reach of the common man, a Dec 27-type apocalypse will come when a man sees his children go hungry. This is aggravated by our media testing the limits of both freedom and licence by giving primetime to terrorists spreading their bloody message, thus serving as the terrorists' most potent weapon.
Few options remain to stem the rot, the foremost being that the coalition government (or even the PPP content) should start functioning, instead of indulging in rhetoric and posturing. Sincere long-term commitment requires Asif Zardari to contest elections and become prime minister. And/or let Yusuf Raza Gilani do his job and not be dictated to! As for the blatantly corrupt, the NAB can give names for the Exit Control List (ECL) in less than one hour, their presence a God-given opportunity to question how they could afford their fabulous lifestyle abroad for a decade on their salaries as bureaucrats. One real option must be reconciliation between the Presidency and PML (N), for democracy to function and counter challenges there is nothing better than a popular leader running governments.
Musharraf's counter-coup imposed martial law without calling it such. Lt Gen Moeen Ahmad of Bangladesh refined Musharraf's "1999 Pakistan model" into the "Bangladesh model" in early 2007 by not making the mistake of sending uniformed officers and men into civilian jobs. Unfortunately almost every military chief who takes over civilian power discovers his own immortality in governance as "the saviour of the nation" and his intentions become suspect. Disappointing for me personally, Moeen is no exception. With loss of credibility the "Bangladesh model" will fail its primary aim, to cleanse the body politic of the corrupt.
To quote my article of June 29, 1995, "Why do martial laws fail?" "Martial Laws fail because the initiators of all extra-constitutional rule ride into town on tanks with the lofty Aim of saving the country, relying on that platonic national purpose to make themselves credible. They soon adjust the Aim to more material (and less patriotic) reasons of self-perpetuation. The original Aim remains publicly the same, becomes an exercise in self-delusion. This diversion of Aim means that one individual or group is simply replaced by another (or others), instead of being a transition mechanism that provides for and facilitates the process of the democratic system being repaired and renovated to reflect the real genius and aspirations of the people."
In both models, the Army went wrong in (1) not including clean and aboveboard electable representatives from major parties in the caretaker setups and (2) its chiefs putting personal ambition over national interest. The ultimate option staring us in the face is the route of last resort, a refined "Pakistan model" with both positive and negative lessons learnt from the 1999 Pakistan and 2007 Bangladesh military interventions. Uniformed personal must stay out of government, supporting the honest and capable in running the affairs. Uniformed persona must also shun a second life in politics and/or government. With a swift return to democratic rule (with continuing and fair accountability to include the judiciary and the military). Pakistan has hope.
The country is not yet in a state of anarchy, the federal government is. As time goes by, in a rapidly deteriorating situation, damage control and recovery of stable governance will be much harder. One can only pick up the pieces if there are any pieces left to pick.
While we are not a failed state, if we act too late, options or not, we are doomed as a state.
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