How to Engineer Elections: A Quick Guide
By Sikder Haseeb Khan
Source: The Progressive Bangladesh
July 1, 2008
Imagine that you’re sitting on the throne of Bangladesh’s politics. You are ruling with emergency powers, but dissent is swelling. You are in the midst of an economic crisis. You are threatened by powerful shadowy figures in your own security and intelligence apparatus. Your previous international patrons now uncomfortable. You need an exit, preferably an honorable one.
So you want to hold elections. But a fully free and fair election will almost certainly result in an outcome that you have reason to distrust, for it may return to power many popular politicians that your administration has persecuted severely. So what do you do in this tense situation?
The answer: engineer the elections—but do so carefully, without raising too many alarm bells. Ensure that voting goes smoothly on election day, without hijacking of ballot boxes, prevention of voters from casting ballots, or any such crude tactics that would be obvious to an observer. In other words, engineer it, not rig it. Here’s how...
Bar dissenters
The first step that the regime has taken: prevent feisty politicians from running in the election. Convicting politicians in quick trials—whatever the charges—will come in handy: declare them ineligible for holding public office. Then government would then intensify an “anti-corruption drive” prior to the candidate registration date in order to bar the local political activists that it doesn’t like.
Field proponents
At the same time, the regime has to leave enough of Awami League and BNP outside the legal net so that the parties themselves can participate in the election. It will continue hand-picking “reformist” politicians or possible turncoats, and intimidate or otherwise persuade them to compete. It will support selective campaigns from both security and funding standpoints. As a recent report by the International Crisis Group noted, “the army is preparing a countrywide list of its own ‘clean’ candidates to contest the 2008 polls.”
Whether or not these candidates will represent a King's Party or an existing political platform doesn't matter. What matters is that mostly pro-regime candidates will be allowed to compete.
Shape the grassroots
Then the regime has to ensure that the party rank and file do not rebel. It has already arrested thousands of activists all over the country to prevent dissent, and intimidated thousands others to conform. The government is also trying to bar parties from having students’, teachers’, and workers’ organizations, which usually house most of the activists. In this altered playing field, the government wants to hold local elections first, under either a state of emergency or very limited openings, to ensure that its supporters are able to infiltrate the grassroots level prior to a national election.
Since parliamentary candidates have to rely on grassroots leaders to carry their campaigns, shaping the grassroots will help ensure that parliamentary candidates are forced toe a pro-regime line.
And local elections are not going to be monitored as much by international observers, so the field will be set to stage ‘upsets’. After all, this unrepresentative government claims that it's only doing what the 'people' presumably want.
Control the cities
Another area that the regime has been trying to bolster is its support base among the urban civil society elite. Its attempt to get Dr. Yunus to lead this effort failed. Many of its other supporters among the urban elite are unappealing and unelectable in the perspective of the majority of voters. So, to the extent possible, it is redefining the boundaries of constituencies to give urban areas a greater share. This increases its chance to increase regime loyalists at least in the metropolitan areas. Holding non-party municipal elections is part of this plan.
Increase authority
The final ingredient is to increase the power of electoral authorities to arbitrarily declare results void. The Election Commission has been doing exactly the same. It is about to “empower it to cancel the candidature of any parliamentary contender for gross violation of electoral laws and declare vacant the seat of an elected lawmaker for giving false information in the account of the election expenses” (New Age, 29 April 2008). And who’s going to determine this violation? The Commission of course. Given this government’s woeful record, you can wave due process bye-bye in any such decision.
Satisfaction guaranteed
So voila! Now hold national elections, and at the end of the day, you have engineered a nice exit strategy by making sure only your friends are elected. No violence, no ballot box hijacking, and a lot of claps from foreign observers.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Cracks in the Bangla Army
Cracks in the Bangla Army
Source: SIFY News
July 18, 2008
Barely five months away from the Parliamentary elections promised by the army-backed Caretaker Government of Bangladesh, the country seems to be reeling from one political crisis to another.
The general perception in the country is the Caretaker Government is no longer army-backed, but is army controlled. With recent problems within the army, and the political scenario bleak, a stable social and political situation in Bangladesh appears a distant hope.
The Caretaker Government has lost its meaning. According to the Constitution, the Caretaker Government was to have held elections within 90 days. But because of the prevailing situation at that time, the army intervened and Emergency Rule (ER) was declared on January 11, 2007. Thus pre-empting a BNP-sponsored coup in the armed force.
The People had welcomed the army’s action and its Chief General Moeen U. Ahmed. But that is no longer the case.
The army removed corrupt political leaders, but replaced them with new corrupt rulers. According to Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB), corruption has not gone down. The opportunity to make money was hard to resist. The army is showing cracks, and the people do not want it to rule any more. The Forces have betrayed the people’s trust.
What Dhaka needs to learn
Re-engineering Bangladesh politics is the brain child of the army top brass, especially General Moeen. When Moeen unveiled his political theory of “Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics”, he also deliberately let slip the army’s ambitions. It would be involved in the running of the country one way or the other.
One proposal pending government approval is the formation of a National Security Council (NSC) dominated by the armed forces with wide powers. Another, not mentioned publicly, is sharing of power between the President, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the House, with the army Chief as the President. Other permutations and combinations are also being discussed in the army headquarters in Dhaka.
To consolidate its position in the governance of the country no matter which political party or coalition comes to power, the 1972 Constitution will require some radical changes, not simple amendments. What General Moeen is proposing could actually lead to permanent instability in the country. He is testing out pages from experiments by Pakistan’s military rulers, who periodically had support from the politicians. For example, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto also contemplated sharing power with the army, but Gen. Zia-ul-Haq hanged him.
Being a Bangladeshi, Moeen U.Ahmed should understand that there is a huge difference between the civil societies of Pakistan and Bangladesh, particularly in the political sphere. Pakistan is still largely a feudal society with power concentrated in the hands of landlords, industrialists and the armed forces. In Bangladesh, power comes from the vibrant politics of student unions, trade unions and grass-roots political workers. At the moment, the political heat may not be as high as that of the 1952 language movement or the 1971 liberation war, but it would be unwise for the army leaders to miscalculate the people’s mood.
Also, there are democratic elements within the defence forces, and it is that context that some recent events need to be understood. Why was Lt. General Masududdin Choudhury (better known as Masud) (and some other officers) suddenly retired in May? Masud backed Moeen in squashing the BNP sponsored coup in the first week of January, last year. They worked together to arrest corrupt politicians and strengthen the grip of the armed forces on the Caretaker Government. So why the fall out?
Bangladesh: A book that burns
According to reliable information circulating in Dhaka, Masud’s ouster was the result of a power struggle between him and Moeen. Masud is known to be articulate, emphatic, and hard headed. Moeen is calculative, soft spoken, and can be charming. Some of their course mates in Bangladesh Staff College say Moeen was noted as an officer with little leadership qualities, while Masud was given to prominence.
But Masud has two drawbacks. First, he was recruited in the old Jatiyo Rakhi Bahini (JRB) of Sk. Mujib, a paramilitary force. When the JRB was disbanded, he was absorbed in the regular army.
Then, he is related to Maj. (Retd) Sayed Iskander, brother of BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia. Iskander is still said to be influential among some senior army officers. Although most of the Zia family is facing trial over corruption cases, Iskander, known to be as corrupt as the rest of the family, is yet to be charged. Did Masud help him? On the other hand, Masud has been very hard on Begum Khaleda’s eldest son, Tareq Reheman Zia, known to be the most corrupt and devious person during the BNP regime from 2001-2006.
Bangladesh: The Caretaker Strikes
Masud’s ouster appears to be a mixture of issues. His services have been placed at the foreign ministry, to be posted abroad as an Ambassador. Australia has reportedly declined his accreditation on the grounds of his corruption. Is Masud being squeezed by Moeen into no man’s land?
Masud could not be cashiered or court martialled, perhaps, because he is privy to too many secrets. Moeen may have made a deal with him on an, “either/or” basis. Having been the GOC of 9 Inf. Division which covers Dhaka, Masud must have had his own following in the army. He also had his own links in the Directorate General of Field Intelligence, the main intelligence arm of the armed forces built on the lines of Pakistan’s ISI.
Then, Brig .General Bari of the DGFI has also been transferred to the Army Headquarters. Bari is a veteran of the DGFI, is close to the ISI, and was directly involved till his transfer in dividing the political parties. His abrupt transfer is being linked to Masud’s removal.
More importantly, it is reported that around 37 army officers in Dhaka have been taken into custody, and are to be court martialled on charges of planning a coup. Unconfirmed reports say some officers were killed in a gun fight resisting arrest.
While Dhaka is known for its rumours, there is no denying the escalating friction between factions of the military.
Secularism is not about appeasing terrorists
For instance, the sections in the armed forces who participate in the UN Peace Keeping Missions, are against the armed forces getting involved in politics. They earn a lot of money from these assignments and do not want to jeopardize this opportunity. The UN Secretary General had warned the Bangladesh armed forces in a letter early last year that if they established army rule in the country, they would be debarred from UN assignments. These assignments not only benefit officers and other ranks, but also go a long way is supplementing the budget of the armed forces.
Unfortunately, the Bangladesh armed forces is not a homogeneous lot of professionals. They have been politicized since Zia-ur-Rehman took over in 1977 as the army chief and then the President of the country. There are some small groups of professionals.
Some 20 per cent reportedly support the Awami League. But a large number are supporters of the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which has cadres from the lower ranks to some officers who are inclined towards Islamic radicalism and Pakistan. These are mostly elements in the forces who had opposed liberation from Pakistan in 1971.
Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed and his colleagues have another serious problem, that of their future security. They have taken on too many political heavyweights, slamming them with corruption charges. The charges are not fictitious. But how many of them can be put behind bars for a long time and debarred from politics?
In many of the cases the charges have been half way houses. If some of them return to power, and many would, they would certainly make the lives of these army officers miserable. It would be so especially in the case of the Khaleda Zia family and her sons Tareq and Arafat, unless they are put away permanently. Begun Khaleda has already said that she will see to these people when she comes back to power.
Moeen and his army colleagues appear to have dug themselves in a hole, and are digging in deeper. It may be advisable for them to ensure that the culprits who have seriously damaged the country are legally ostracized from the country’s socio-political lattice. And then leave politics to the people.
“Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics” is a recipe for disaster.
But General Moeen U. Ahmed obviously believes otherwise.
________________________
Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests. In this exclusive column for Sify.com, he holds forth on what Pyongyang will do once the nuclear issue is resolved
Source: SIFY News
July 18, 2008
Barely five months away from the Parliamentary elections promised by the army-backed Caretaker Government of Bangladesh, the country seems to be reeling from one political crisis to another.
The general perception in the country is the Caretaker Government is no longer army-backed, but is army controlled. With recent problems within the army, and the political scenario bleak, a stable social and political situation in Bangladesh appears a distant hope.
The Caretaker Government has lost its meaning. According to the Constitution, the Caretaker Government was to have held elections within 90 days. But because of the prevailing situation at that time, the army intervened and Emergency Rule (ER) was declared on January 11, 2007. Thus pre-empting a BNP-sponsored coup in the armed force.
The People had welcomed the army’s action and its Chief General Moeen U. Ahmed. But that is no longer the case.
The army removed corrupt political leaders, but replaced them with new corrupt rulers. According to Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB), corruption has not gone down. The opportunity to make money was hard to resist. The army is showing cracks, and the people do not want it to rule any more. The Forces have betrayed the people’s trust.
What Dhaka needs to learn
Re-engineering Bangladesh politics is the brain child of the army top brass, especially General Moeen. When Moeen unveiled his political theory of “Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics”, he also deliberately let slip the army’s ambitions. It would be involved in the running of the country one way or the other.
One proposal pending government approval is the formation of a National Security Council (NSC) dominated by the armed forces with wide powers. Another, not mentioned publicly, is sharing of power between the President, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the House, with the army Chief as the President. Other permutations and combinations are also being discussed in the army headquarters in Dhaka.
To consolidate its position in the governance of the country no matter which political party or coalition comes to power, the 1972 Constitution will require some radical changes, not simple amendments. What General Moeen is proposing could actually lead to permanent instability in the country. He is testing out pages from experiments by Pakistan’s military rulers, who periodically had support from the politicians. For example, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto also contemplated sharing power with the army, but Gen. Zia-ul-Haq hanged him.
Being a Bangladeshi, Moeen U.Ahmed should understand that there is a huge difference between the civil societies of Pakistan and Bangladesh, particularly in the political sphere. Pakistan is still largely a feudal society with power concentrated in the hands of landlords, industrialists and the armed forces. In Bangladesh, power comes from the vibrant politics of student unions, trade unions and grass-roots political workers. At the moment, the political heat may not be as high as that of the 1952 language movement or the 1971 liberation war, but it would be unwise for the army leaders to miscalculate the people’s mood.
Also, there are democratic elements within the defence forces, and it is that context that some recent events need to be understood. Why was Lt. General Masududdin Choudhury (better known as Masud) (and some other officers) suddenly retired in May? Masud backed Moeen in squashing the BNP sponsored coup in the first week of January, last year. They worked together to arrest corrupt politicians and strengthen the grip of the armed forces on the Caretaker Government. So why the fall out?
Bangladesh: A book that burns
According to reliable information circulating in Dhaka, Masud’s ouster was the result of a power struggle between him and Moeen. Masud is known to be articulate, emphatic, and hard headed. Moeen is calculative, soft spoken, and can be charming. Some of their course mates in Bangladesh Staff College say Moeen was noted as an officer with little leadership qualities, while Masud was given to prominence.
But Masud has two drawbacks. First, he was recruited in the old Jatiyo Rakhi Bahini (JRB) of Sk. Mujib, a paramilitary force. When the JRB was disbanded, he was absorbed in the regular army.
Then, he is related to Maj. (Retd) Sayed Iskander, brother of BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia. Iskander is still said to be influential among some senior army officers. Although most of the Zia family is facing trial over corruption cases, Iskander, known to be as corrupt as the rest of the family, is yet to be charged. Did Masud help him? On the other hand, Masud has been very hard on Begum Khaleda’s eldest son, Tareq Reheman Zia, known to be the most corrupt and devious person during the BNP regime from 2001-2006.
Bangladesh: The Caretaker Strikes
Masud’s ouster appears to be a mixture of issues. His services have been placed at the foreign ministry, to be posted abroad as an Ambassador. Australia has reportedly declined his accreditation on the grounds of his corruption. Is Masud being squeezed by Moeen into no man’s land?
Masud could not be cashiered or court martialled, perhaps, because he is privy to too many secrets. Moeen may have made a deal with him on an, “either/or” basis. Having been the GOC of 9 Inf. Division which covers Dhaka, Masud must have had his own following in the army. He also had his own links in the Directorate General of Field Intelligence, the main intelligence arm of the armed forces built on the lines of Pakistan’s ISI.
Then, Brig .General Bari of the DGFI has also been transferred to the Army Headquarters. Bari is a veteran of the DGFI, is close to the ISI, and was directly involved till his transfer in dividing the political parties. His abrupt transfer is being linked to Masud’s removal.
More importantly, it is reported that around 37 army officers in Dhaka have been taken into custody, and are to be court martialled on charges of planning a coup. Unconfirmed reports say some officers were killed in a gun fight resisting arrest.
While Dhaka is known for its rumours, there is no denying the escalating friction between factions of the military.
Secularism is not about appeasing terrorists
For instance, the sections in the armed forces who participate in the UN Peace Keeping Missions, are against the armed forces getting involved in politics. They earn a lot of money from these assignments and do not want to jeopardize this opportunity. The UN Secretary General had warned the Bangladesh armed forces in a letter early last year that if they established army rule in the country, they would be debarred from UN assignments. These assignments not only benefit officers and other ranks, but also go a long way is supplementing the budget of the armed forces.
Unfortunately, the Bangladesh armed forces is not a homogeneous lot of professionals. They have been politicized since Zia-ur-Rehman took over in 1977 as the army chief and then the President of the country. There are some small groups of professionals.
Some 20 per cent reportedly support the Awami League. But a large number are supporters of the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which has cadres from the lower ranks to some officers who are inclined towards Islamic radicalism and Pakistan. These are mostly elements in the forces who had opposed liberation from Pakistan in 1971.
Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed and his colleagues have another serious problem, that of their future security. They have taken on too many political heavyweights, slamming them with corruption charges. The charges are not fictitious. But how many of them can be put behind bars for a long time and debarred from politics?
In many of the cases the charges have been half way houses. If some of them return to power, and many would, they would certainly make the lives of these army officers miserable. It would be so especially in the case of the Khaleda Zia family and her sons Tareq and Arafat, unless they are put away permanently. Begun Khaleda has already said that she will see to these people when she comes back to power.
Moeen and his army colleagues appear to have dug themselves in a hole, and are digging in deeper. It may be advisable for them to ensure that the culprits who have seriously damaged the country are legally ostracized from the country’s socio-political lattice. And then leave politics to the people.
“Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics” is a recipe for disaster.
But General Moeen U. Ahmed obviously believes otherwise.
________________________
Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests. In this exclusive column for Sify.com, he holds forth on what Pyongyang will do once the nuclear issue is resolved
Thursday, July 17, 2008
A Refined Pakistan Model in Bangladesh
A refined 'Pakistan model'?
Source: The News
By Ikram Sehgal
July 17, 2008
Five major power centres exist in Pakistan today, and many smaller ones complicate the state of limbo we are in. On Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto's death, her "will" was read out. With the party leadership in a state of shock, no one questioned the document, giving Asif Zardari space to stage-manage a stunning political coup. Nearly all of the late Mohtarma's close aides who had rendered sacrifices within the country for over a decade were shunted aside, unelected or indirectly elected cronies were installed by Zardari's diktat in the party's Central Executive Committee. Democracy at its best? Unlike the PPP, PPP (Z) leaders are almost all beneficiaries of NRO, the blackest of black laws, with a short unambiguous agenda on behalf of their mentor: make money quickly and leave Pakistan, or whatever is left of it, economically and politically bankrupt.
The title and trappings of office make the prime minister, Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, another power centre, although most of his authority is nevertheless exercised by others. A good man with impeccable political credentials, he was preferred over Ahmad Mukhtar because the Defence Minister would not be a rubberstamp. Put into government to serve as camouflage, one cannot club genuine and committed PPP party activists with PPP (Z).
The Presidency's powers have now diminished considerably. Many want Pervez Musharraf out of office and prosecuted on a number of counts, but he remains in contention. What about the groundswell of public opinion comparing him to the present lot and concluding he wasn't so bad after all? Musharraf would do well as a constitutional president if he does not interfere with governance.
The Sharif brothers' political combine in the Punjab is another major force. Unfortunately, the mass support of the only national popular leader in the country today, Mian Nawaz Sharif, does not translate into many electoral seats in other provinces. With capable and elected leaders to counsel him (as opposed to those surrounding Zardari), the manic obsession about the superior judiciary in exclusion of the many serious problems confronting Pakistan causes reservations about Mian Sahib's judgment and priorities. The PML-N leader should shun confrontation; politics is the art of compromise.
The most potent power centre is in a state of ambiguity. Engaged in a balancing act juggling options between disparate forces and issues, Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has managed to redeem the Army's image by withdrawing lock and stock (if not barrel as yet) from civilian life and ensuring free and fair elections. The no-win situation includes counselling the US that "hot pursuit" into FATA will further exacerbate anti-American feeling, while keeping passions in the ranks from reacting to bloody provocation. Pride notwithstanding, the Pakistani Armed Forces can hardly take on US military might. Having ensured "democracy," it is hypocrisy to salute the rather crooked lot in "constitutional" control of the country. When criminals function in the name of justice, justice becomes a crime. The perception of Kayani's constituency cannot be different from that of the common citizens of Pakistan. Commitment to democracy and the Constitution notwithstanding, can the Army gamble with missing the failsafe line before the country dissolves into chaos?
Numerous challenges continue to pound the ramparts of the state, (1) domestic terrorism with international connotations and nuclear proliferation accusations compounded by AQ Khan's latest outburst puts us on collision course with the West, (2) economic meltdown along with rising oil prices and continuous downward spike of the rupee, (3) an alarming food shortage causing inordinate price rises, (4) manufacturing shutdowns force-multiplying unemployment, (5) serious separatist challenges in Balochistan, and (6) endemic insecurity among the masses because of rapidly eroding confidence in the political leadership. With the buying power of salaries rapidly eroding and food prices inflated astronomically beyond the reach of the common man, a Dec 27-type apocalypse will come when a man sees his children go hungry. This is aggravated by our media testing the limits of both freedom and licence by giving primetime to terrorists spreading their bloody message, thus serving as the terrorists' most potent weapon.
Few options remain to stem the rot, the foremost being that the coalition government (or even the PPP content) should start functioning, instead of indulging in rhetoric and posturing. Sincere long-term commitment requires Asif Zardari to contest elections and become prime minister. And/or let Yusuf Raza Gilani do his job and not be dictated to! As for the blatantly corrupt, the NAB can give names for the Exit Control List (ECL) in less than one hour, their presence a God-given opportunity to question how they could afford their fabulous lifestyle abroad for a decade on their salaries as bureaucrats. One real option must be reconciliation between the Presidency and PML (N), for democracy to function and counter challenges there is nothing better than a popular leader running governments.
Musharraf's counter-coup imposed martial law without calling it such. Lt Gen Moeen Ahmad of Bangladesh refined Musharraf's "1999 Pakistan model" into the "Bangladesh model" in early 2007 by not making the mistake of sending uniformed officers and men into civilian jobs. Unfortunately almost every military chief who takes over civilian power discovers his own immortality in governance as "the saviour of the nation" and his intentions become suspect. Disappointing for me personally, Moeen is no exception. With loss of credibility the "Bangladesh model" will fail its primary aim, to cleanse the body politic of the corrupt.
To quote my article of June 29, 1995, "Why do martial laws fail?" "Martial Laws fail because the initiators of all extra-constitutional rule ride into town on tanks with the lofty Aim of saving the country, relying on that platonic national purpose to make themselves credible. They soon adjust the Aim to more material (and less patriotic) reasons of self-perpetuation. The original Aim remains publicly the same, becomes an exercise in self-delusion. This diversion of Aim means that one individual or group is simply replaced by another (or others), instead of being a transition mechanism that provides for and facilitates the process of the democratic system being repaired and renovated to reflect the real genius and aspirations of the people."
In both models, the Army went wrong in (1) not including clean and aboveboard electable representatives from major parties in the caretaker setups and (2) its chiefs putting personal ambition over national interest. The ultimate option staring us in the face is the route of last resort, a refined "Pakistan model" with both positive and negative lessons learnt from the 1999 Pakistan and 2007 Bangladesh military interventions. Uniformed personal must stay out of government, supporting the honest and capable in running the affairs. Uniformed persona must also shun a second life in politics and/or government. With a swift return to democratic rule (with continuing and fair accountability to include the judiciary and the military). Pakistan has hope.
The country is not yet in a state of anarchy, the federal government is. As time goes by, in a rapidly deteriorating situation, damage control and recovery of stable governance will be much harder. One can only pick up the pieces if there are any pieces left to pick.
While we are not a failed state, if we act too late, options or not, we are doomed as a state.
Source: The News
By Ikram Sehgal
July 17, 2008
Five major power centres exist in Pakistan today, and many smaller ones complicate the state of limbo we are in. On Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto's death, her "will" was read out. With the party leadership in a state of shock, no one questioned the document, giving Asif Zardari space to stage-manage a stunning political coup. Nearly all of the late Mohtarma's close aides who had rendered sacrifices within the country for over a decade were shunted aside, unelected or indirectly elected cronies were installed by Zardari's diktat in the party's Central Executive Committee. Democracy at its best? Unlike the PPP, PPP (Z) leaders are almost all beneficiaries of NRO, the blackest of black laws, with a short unambiguous agenda on behalf of their mentor: make money quickly and leave Pakistan, or whatever is left of it, economically and politically bankrupt.
The title and trappings of office make the prime minister, Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, another power centre, although most of his authority is nevertheless exercised by others. A good man with impeccable political credentials, he was preferred over Ahmad Mukhtar because the Defence Minister would not be a rubberstamp. Put into government to serve as camouflage, one cannot club genuine and committed PPP party activists with PPP (Z).
The Presidency's powers have now diminished considerably. Many want Pervez Musharraf out of office and prosecuted on a number of counts, but he remains in contention. What about the groundswell of public opinion comparing him to the present lot and concluding he wasn't so bad after all? Musharraf would do well as a constitutional president if he does not interfere with governance.
The Sharif brothers' political combine in the Punjab is another major force. Unfortunately, the mass support of the only national popular leader in the country today, Mian Nawaz Sharif, does not translate into many electoral seats in other provinces. With capable and elected leaders to counsel him (as opposed to those surrounding Zardari), the manic obsession about the superior judiciary in exclusion of the many serious problems confronting Pakistan causes reservations about Mian Sahib's judgment and priorities. The PML-N leader should shun confrontation; politics is the art of compromise.
The most potent power centre is in a state of ambiguity. Engaged in a balancing act juggling options between disparate forces and issues, Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has managed to redeem the Army's image by withdrawing lock and stock (if not barrel as yet) from civilian life and ensuring free and fair elections. The no-win situation includes counselling the US that "hot pursuit" into FATA will further exacerbate anti-American feeling, while keeping passions in the ranks from reacting to bloody provocation. Pride notwithstanding, the Pakistani Armed Forces can hardly take on US military might. Having ensured "democracy," it is hypocrisy to salute the rather crooked lot in "constitutional" control of the country. When criminals function in the name of justice, justice becomes a crime. The perception of Kayani's constituency cannot be different from that of the common citizens of Pakistan. Commitment to democracy and the Constitution notwithstanding, can the Army gamble with missing the failsafe line before the country dissolves into chaos?
Numerous challenges continue to pound the ramparts of the state, (1) domestic terrorism with international connotations and nuclear proliferation accusations compounded by AQ Khan's latest outburst puts us on collision course with the West, (2) economic meltdown along with rising oil prices and continuous downward spike of the rupee, (3) an alarming food shortage causing inordinate price rises, (4) manufacturing shutdowns force-multiplying unemployment, (5) serious separatist challenges in Balochistan, and (6) endemic insecurity among the masses because of rapidly eroding confidence in the political leadership. With the buying power of salaries rapidly eroding and food prices inflated astronomically beyond the reach of the common man, a Dec 27-type apocalypse will come when a man sees his children go hungry. This is aggravated by our media testing the limits of both freedom and licence by giving primetime to terrorists spreading their bloody message, thus serving as the terrorists' most potent weapon.
Few options remain to stem the rot, the foremost being that the coalition government (or even the PPP content) should start functioning, instead of indulging in rhetoric and posturing. Sincere long-term commitment requires Asif Zardari to contest elections and become prime minister. And/or let Yusuf Raza Gilani do his job and not be dictated to! As for the blatantly corrupt, the NAB can give names for the Exit Control List (ECL) in less than one hour, their presence a God-given opportunity to question how they could afford their fabulous lifestyle abroad for a decade on their salaries as bureaucrats. One real option must be reconciliation between the Presidency and PML (N), for democracy to function and counter challenges there is nothing better than a popular leader running governments.
Musharraf's counter-coup imposed martial law without calling it such. Lt Gen Moeen Ahmad of Bangladesh refined Musharraf's "1999 Pakistan model" into the "Bangladesh model" in early 2007 by not making the mistake of sending uniformed officers and men into civilian jobs. Unfortunately almost every military chief who takes over civilian power discovers his own immortality in governance as "the saviour of the nation" and his intentions become suspect. Disappointing for me personally, Moeen is no exception. With loss of credibility the "Bangladesh model" will fail its primary aim, to cleanse the body politic of the corrupt.
To quote my article of June 29, 1995, "Why do martial laws fail?" "Martial Laws fail because the initiators of all extra-constitutional rule ride into town on tanks with the lofty Aim of saving the country, relying on that platonic national purpose to make themselves credible. They soon adjust the Aim to more material (and less patriotic) reasons of self-perpetuation. The original Aim remains publicly the same, becomes an exercise in self-delusion. This diversion of Aim means that one individual or group is simply replaced by another (or others), instead of being a transition mechanism that provides for and facilitates the process of the democratic system being repaired and renovated to reflect the real genius and aspirations of the people."
In both models, the Army went wrong in (1) not including clean and aboveboard electable representatives from major parties in the caretaker setups and (2) its chiefs putting personal ambition over national interest. The ultimate option staring us in the face is the route of last resort, a refined "Pakistan model" with both positive and negative lessons learnt from the 1999 Pakistan and 2007 Bangladesh military interventions. Uniformed personal must stay out of government, supporting the honest and capable in running the affairs. Uniformed persona must also shun a second life in politics and/or government. With a swift return to democratic rule (with continuing and fair accountability to include the judiciary and the military). Pakistan has hope.
The country is not yet in a state of anarchy, the federal government is. As time goes by, in a rapidly deteriorating situation, damage control and recovery of stable governance will be much harder. One can only pick up the pieces if there are any pieces left to pick.
While we are not a failed state, if we act too late, options or not, we are doomed as a state.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Has Bangladesh Banned Sachalaytan-Blog Forum?
It appears that Bangladesh may have banned one of the most popular Bangla Blog Forums called Sachalaytan. Sachalayatan readers and bloggers from Bangladesh have been denied access to the site for the last 24 hours. The Government Source in Bangladesh has yet to make any official comments about blocking Sachalaytan, a popular free thinking, secular and pro democracy writers' forum. Sachalaytan has already weighed in the possible technical glitches with its host company in the USA and any possibility for technical glitches has already been ruled out.
It is a tragic development that the military government has chosen to block access to one of the most progressive writers' forums without any official explanation and justification. It is night time in Bangladesh, we are hoping that more developments will come to light by tomorrow. We hope that our colleagues from all over the world will join voices to condemn the ban on Sachalaytan. The Bloggers and readers from Bangladesh are greatly shocked and moved by this incident. Had the Bangladesh Government really chosen to block a free on-line Blog forum, it would certainly be a huge mistake for its part. Let's hope that the military government in Bangladesh won't walk again backwards.
It is a tragic development that the military government has chosen to block access to one of the most progressive writers' forums without any official explanation and justification. It is night time in Bangladesh, we are hoping that more developments will come to light by tomorrow. We hope that our colleagues from all over the world will join voices to condemn the ban on Sachalaytan. The Bloggers and readers from Bangladesh are greatly shocked and moved by this incident. Had the Bangladesh Government really chosen to block a free on-line Blog forum, it would certainly be a huge mistake for its part. Let's hope that the military government in Bangladesh won't walk again backwards.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Bribe-takers in Anti Corruption Body
Source: AFP
July 9, 2008
DHAKA (AFP) — Bangladesh's top anti-corruption body admitted Tuesday that it has discovered several of its own officials taking bribes while enforcing a nationwide crackdown on the practice.
The Anti-Corruption Commission is planning to take action against 28 of its staff, including 11 who will have to go to court, commission spokesman Colonel Hanif Iqbal told AFP.
"We have decided to take action against 28 of our officials after an internal monitoring and surveillance has found them seeking or taking bribes and breaking service rules such as secretly buying properties," Iqbal said.
The officials exposed include two directors and several assistant directors, he said, adding the ACC would continue its "strict surveillance."
Bangladesh's military-backed government reconstituted the ACC immediately after it took power in January last year following the imposition of a state of emergency and the cancellation of elections.
The commission was made independent and given strong powers in an effort to clean up the country's graft-tainted reputation.
Bangladesh is rated one of the world's most corrupt countries by Berlin-based business watchdog Transparency International.
The body has filed scores of cases against political leaders, former ministers and top businessmen, accused of plundering state wealth and taking millions of dollars in kickbacks.
July 9, 2008
DHAKA (AFP) — Bangladesh's top anti-corruption body admitted Tuesday that it has discovered several of its own officials taking bribes while enforcing a nationwide crackdown on the practice.
The Anti-Corruption Commission is planning to take action against 28 of its staff, including 11 who will have to go to court, commission spokesman Colonel Hanif Iqbal told AFP.
"We have decided to take action against 28 of our officials after an internal monitoring and surveillance has found them seeking or taking bribes and breaking service rules such as secretly buying properties," Iqbal said.
The officials exposed include two directors and several assistant directors, he said, adding the ACC would continue its "strict surveillance."
Bangladesh's military-backed government reconstituted the ACC immediately after it took power in January last year following the imposition of a state of emergency and the cancellation of elections.
The commission was made independent and given strong powers in an effort to clean up the country's graft-tainted reputation.
Bangladesh is rated one of the world's most corrupt countries by Berlin-based business watchdog Transparency International.
The body has filed scores of cases against political leaders, former ministers and top businessmen, accused of plundering state wealth and taking millions of dollars in kickbacks.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Terrorists in Bangladesh?
Terrorists in Bangladesh?
Another Musharraf could emerge if the US doesn't act.
By Selig S. Harrison
Source: Christian Science Monitor
July 8, 2008
While the CIA and the Pentagon search in vain for Osama bin Laden in the mountains of Pakistan, an Al Qaeda affiliate has been quietly building up terrorist bases in the jungles of Bangladesh under the protective aegis of a new military regime in Dhaka allied with Islamist forces.
The founding leader of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami in Bangladesh, Fazlur Rehman Khalil, was one of the six signatories of Mr. bin Laden's first declaration of holy war against the United States, and a US State Department study reports that Harkat "maintains contact with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan."
Bush administration officials privately endorse mounting Indian evidence that Bangladeshi Harkat agents spearheaded a series of terrorist attacks in India. But the US has conspicuously failed to press Bangladesh's military ruler, Gen. Moeen U Ahmed, for a crackdown on Harkat and for the removal of highly placed intelligence officials with Islamist ties.
General Ahmed staged a bloodless coup in January 2007, forcing a figurehead president to give him emergency powers. He has pledged to hold elections in December and return power to a civilian government. The Bush administration, while formally urging him to hold the elections on schedule, has so far ignored his increasingly blatant efforts to rig them.
Ahmed is maneuvering to break up the two biggest secular political parties, the Awami League, which actively opposes Islamist influence, and the Bangladesh National Party. He barred political activity by their popular leaders and is organizing a new army-controlled political party to challenge them. Invoking his emergency powers, he is rounding up grass-roots leaders of the two parties and muzzling the media. Harkat, Jamaat-i-Islami Bangladesh and other Islamist groups that support the military regime are operating unhindered.
By its silence in the face of Ahmed's power grab, Washington is signaling that it sees little hope of ending military rule. But it is much too soon to write off the prospects for democracy in Bangladesh, where almost everyone was politicized during the independence struggle against Pakistan. Since then, three free elections have been held, and two previous military regimes have proved to be short-lived.
In US security terms Harkat and its allies have direct links to anti-US Islamist forces in Pakistan. These links predate the secession of Bangladesh – the fourth-largest Muslim country in the world – from Pakistan in 1971. The Islamists in Bangladesh supported Islamabad during the independence struggle and have subsequently been used by Pakistani intelligence agencies to harass India.
When respected Bangladeshi journalists have attempted to write about Islamist sympathizers in the military regime and their links with Islamabad, they have faced assassination attempts. The most notorious case is that of Tasneem Khalil, who worked as a correspondent for CNN and others in Dhaka. In 2007, Khalil was held incommunicado for 22 hours, beaten, and forced to leave the country after exposing Islamist influence in the military intelligence agency.
Defenders of the military regime point out that four Islamist leaders were executed last year, but they gloss over the fact that the executions occurred after the four had contacted the media to expose their links with the intelligence agency.
The army contends that past civilian regimes were hopelessly corrupt and practiced only a "feudal democracy." The military takeover in 2007 was unavoidable, it says, because the last civilian government, headed by the BNP, was rigging forthcoming elections.
But the Bangladesh Constitution requires elections within 90 days of the dissolution of Parliament. The army regime has been unconstitutional since April 2007.
The US and other aid donors should use their powerful leverage to push hard for an immediate end to emergency powers and for elections by December. It would be a bitter irony if a new Musharraf should emerge in Dhaka just as Pervez Musharraf finds himself increasingly embattled in Islamabad
Another Musharraf could emerge if the US doesn't act.
By Selig S. Harrison
Source: Christian Science Monitor
July 8, 2008
While the CIA and the Pentagon search in vain for Osama bin Laden in the mountains of Pakistan, an Al Qaeda affiliate has been quietly building up terrorist bases in the jungles of Bangladesh under the protective aegis of a new military regime in Dhaka allied with Islamist forces.
The founding leader of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami in Bangladesh, Fazlur Rehman Khalil, was one of the six signatories of Mr. bin Laden's first declaration of holy war against the United States, and a US State Department study reports that Harkat "maintains contact with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan."
Bush administration officials privately endorse mounting Indian evidence that Bangladeshi Harkat agents spearheaded a series of terrorist attacks in India. But the US has conspicuously failed to press Bangladesh's military ruler, Gen. Moeen U Ahmed, for a crackdown on Harkat and for the removal of highly placed intelligence officials with Islamist ties.
General Ahmed staged a bloodless coup in January 2007, forcing a figurehead president to give him emergency powers. He has pledged to hold elections in December and return power to a civilian government. The Bush administration, while formally urging him to hold the elections on schedule, has so far ignored his increasingly blatant efforts to rig them.
Ahmed is maneuvering to break up the two biggest secular political parties, the Awami League, which actively opposes Islamist influence, and the Bangladesh National Party. He barred political activity by their popular leaders and is organizing a new army-controlled political party to challenge them. Invoking his emergency powers, he is rounding up grass-roots leaders of the two parties and muzzling the media. Harkat, Jamaat-i-Islami Bangladesh and other Islamist groups that support the military regime are operating unhindered.
By its silence in the face of Ahmed's power grab, Washington is signaling that it sees little hope of ending military rule. But it is much too soon to write off the prospects for democracy in Bangladesh, where almost everyone was politicized during the independence struggle against Pakistan. Since then, three free elections have been held, and two previous military regimes have proved to be short-lived.
In US security terms Harkat and its allies have direct links to anti-US Islamist forces in Pakistan. These links predate the secession of Bangladesh – the fourth-largest Muslim country in the world – from Pakistan in 1971. The Islamists in Bangladesh supported Islamabad during the independence struggle and have subsequently been used by Pakistani intelligence agencies to harass India.
When respected Bangladeshi journalists have attempted to write about Islamist sympathizers in the military regime and their links with Islamabad, they have faced assassination attempts. The most notorious case is that of Tasneem Khalil, who worked as a correspondent for CNN and others in Dhaka. In 2007, Khalil was held incommunicado for 22 hours, beaten, and forced to leave the country after exposing Islamist influence in the military intelligence agency.
Defenders of the military regime point out that four Islamist leaders were executed last year, but they gloss over the fact that the executions occurred after the four had contacted the media to expose their links with the intelligence agency.
The army contends that past civilian regimes were hopelessly corrupt and practiced only a "feudal democracy." The military takeover in 2007 was unavoidable, it says, because the last civilian government, headed by the BNP, was rigging forthcoming elections.
But the Bangladesh Constitution requires elections within 90 days of the dissolution of Parliament. The army regime has been unconstitutional since April 2007.
The US and other aid donors should use their powerful leverage to push hard for an immediate end to emergency powers and for elections by December. It would be a bitter irony if a new Musharraf should emerge in Dhaka just as Pervez Musharraf finds himself increasingly embattled in Islamabad
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